For context, also read our previous daily analysis, Gold Price Analysis: 3 Critical Levels After a Brutal Nasdaq Selloff, and our chip sector study, SOX Index: 3 Proven Supports in a Bullish Triangle.
This gold and Nasdaq outlook opens on the first day of the Fed meeting. Spot gold is trading near $4,000–$4,015 after closing Monday at $4,016.97, roughly $40 above Friday’s three-month low at $3,975. Nasdaq 100 December futures are near 29,440 after a Monday rebound of about 1% in the cash index, helped by Anthropic’s IPO filing. The one thing that matters most: both markets are bouncing inside ranges, and Wednesday’s FOMC decision plus Microsoft and Alphabet results that evening will likely decide which side breaks.
Gold and Nasdaq Outlook: Gold Structure and Key Levels
Elliott Wave Context
Our higher-timeframe count is unchanged. The January 2026 peak near $5,580 ended a large impulsive advance, and gold has been in a wave 4 correction since. The drop from the $4,142 swing high reads as a C wave inside that extended wave 4. Friday’s low at $3,975 held above the $3,941 year-to-date low, so the wave 4 label remains valid. The bounce so far is small and overlapping, which fits a corrective rebound rather than a confirmed new impulse.
Price Action
Gold closed Friday near $3,996, slightly below $4,000, but above our $3,987 trigger. Monday reclaimed $4,000 and stalled at $4,020. Daily RSI was near 33 on Friday, oversold but not yet turning on the daily chart. Price is now pinned between $4,000 support and the $4,039 Fibonacci level highlighted by FXEmpire.
Key Levels
Resistance: $4,039–$4,050, then $4,075–$4,100, then $4,142. Support: $4,000, then $3,975, then $3,941–$3,960.
Bullish Scenario
If gold closes above $4,040, the structure points to $4,075–$4,100, then $4,142. Invalidation: a daily close below $3,975.
Bearish Scenario
If gold closes below $3,975, the C wave likely extends toward $3,941–$3,960, then $3,890. Invalidation: a daily close back above $4,040. A break of $3,941 would put the wave 4 count itself under review.
Nasdaq 100: Rebound Into Resistance Before Mega-Cap Earnings
Elliott Wave Context
The Nasdaq 100 set a record high near 31,365 in early October. The decline since then has made a lower low, near 28,850 last week, which favours an A-B-C correction over a simple pullback. Monday’s rebound has the look of a wave B bounce until price reclaims the 29,800 zone, where the 50-day EMA and a falling trendline sit, according to StoneX.
Price Action
NQ futures traded Monday between about 29,165 and 29,572. The 29,000 area has held three times. The near-term range is roughly 29,000 to 29,630. A breakout from it before Wednesday is less likely than a move after the Fed and the earnings releases.
Key Levels (cash NDX, approximate zones)
Resistance: 29,630, then 29,800, then 30,000–30,200. Support: 29,000, then 28,700, then 28,100–28,300.
Bullish Scenario
If the index closes above 29,630, the structure points to 29,800, then 30,000–30,200. Invalidation: a daily close below 29,000.
Bearish Scenario
If the index closes below 29,000, the C wave likely targets 28,700, then 28,100–28,300. Invalidation: a daily close above 29,630.
Macro: Yields, Dollar, Fed Odds and the Calendar
Yields and the Dollar
The 10-year Treasury yield is near 4.98%, flat on Monday and lower for three straight weeks, down from above 5.3% earlier in October. The dollar index is near 102, up about 0.2% on Monday. Lower yields have helped gold only a little so far, because oil keeps rate-hike pricing alive.
Fed Pricing
CME FedWatch, as reported in the news, shows about a 90% chance of a hold at 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday. The odds of a December hike range from about 73% to 90%, depending on the source. There are no new projections at this meeting, so Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference is the main event.
Calendar
Today: durable goods (8:30 a.m. ET), consumer confidence and new home sales (10:00 a.m. ET). Wednesday: FOMC decision (2:00 p.m. ET), then Microsoft and Alphabet results. Thursday: Q3 GDP, September PCE, the ECB decision and Amazon results. Friday: the BoJ decision.
Follow-Up on Previous Setups
Gold (October 23, published near $4,015): No trigger, range held on a closing basis
The bearish trigger was a daily close below $3,987. Price wicked to $3,975 on Friday but closed near $3,996, so it did not fire. The bullish trigger, a close above $4,068, was not reached either. The $3,960 invalidation was not touched. Neither setup triggered, and both are now replaced by today’s levels.
Nasdaq 100 (October 23, published near 28,960 cash): Bearish missed, bullish trigger unconfirmed
The bearish trigger, a close below 28,700, did not fire; last week’s low was near 28,850. The bullish trigger was a daily close above 29,300. Monday’s cash close was very close to that level, and we could not confirm from two sources whether it closed above it. We count the bullish setup as not triggered. Its first target, 29,700, has not been reached.
Summary
XAUUSD near $4,010:
🟢 Bullish above $4,040, toward $4,075–$4,100 and then $4,142
⚠️ Neutral between $3,975 and $4,040
🔴 Bullish case invalidated below $3,975, opening $3,941 and then $3,890
Nasdaq 100 near 29,400:
🟢 Bullish above 29,630, toward 29,800 and then 30,000–30,200
⚠️ Neutral between 29,000 and 29,630
🔴 Bullish case invalidated below 29,000, opening 28,700 and then 28,100
Both markets are mid-range ahead of a Fed decision and major earnings. Moves before Wednesday can reverse quickly, and gaps through levels are possible after the releases. Treat these levels as probabilities, not certainties.
Full Elliott Wave counts and the ICT and Elliott Wave market scanner are available in PST All-Access → prosignaltrades.com/setup/
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Disclaimer: ProSignalTrades is an independent software tool and is NOT a broker, financial advisor, or associated with any asset management corporation. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or trading advice. Trading involves significant risk.
