For context on today’s levels, also read our previous daily analysis, Gold and Nasdaq Outlook: 3 Critical Levels in a Dangerous Week, and our earlier call, Gold Support Holds at $4,130.
Our gold price analysis for Friday starts with one number: $4,000. Spot gold fell almost 2% on Thursday to close at $4,045, then printed a fresh three-month low at $3,986.74 in Asian trade and is now near $4,015–$4,020. The cash Nasdaq 100 had its worst day in four months, down 2.9% to 28,958.69, and futures are roughly flat overnight. The one thing that matters most today is whether gold can hold the $3,987–$4,000 zone on a daily close.
Gold Price Analysis: Structure and Key Levels
On the higher timeframe our count is unchanged. The January 2026 peak near $5,580 completed a large impulsive advance, and gold has been in a wave 4 correction since then. On Thursday price broke out of the bottom of the three-week range between $4,066 and $4,228. That makes the move from the October high read as a C wave lower inside an extending wave 4, not as a finished bottom.
Price Action: Range Broken, July Lows in Play
Thursday’s candle opened at $4,125, failed at $4,126 and closed near its low. That is a decisive session, not a wick. The next shelf is the July cluster: $3,996 (July 29 low), $3,959 (July 17 low) and $3,941, the year-to-date low, as listed by FXStreet. RSI on the weekly chart is near 39, which is weak but not washed out.
Key Levels
Resistance is $4,053–$4,068 (old support, now resistance), then $4,100, then $4,126–$4,142 (Thursday’s high and the falling trendline). Support is $3,987–$3,996, then $3,941–$3,960, then the broken long-term trendline near $3,873.
Bullish Scenario
Trigger: $3,987 holds and gold closes back above $4,068. Targets: $4,100, then $4,126–$4,142. Invalidation: a daily close below $3,960.
Bearish Scenario
Trigger: a daily close below $3,987. Targets: $3,941–$3,960, then $3,873. Invalidation: a close back above $4,068.
A loss of the $3,941 year-to-date low would put the wave 4 label itself under review. We would then treat the decline as a larger correction until price proves otherwise.
Nasdaq 100: Below 29,000 After the Worst Day in Four Months
The cash Nasdaq 100 set a record close at 31,224.69 on October 6. On Thursday it lost 2.9% as Meta (down about 7%), Lam Research (down nearly 12%), Amazon and Alphabet were sold on AI spending worries, according to Stocktwits. The close at 28,958.69 also took out the October 16 low near 29,073. From today we quote cash index levels, which can be checked against any public source.
Elliott Wave Context
The rally from the April low near 23,550 reads as a five-wave advance. The decline from the October record now has a lower low, which favours an A-B-C correction over a simple pullback. A 10% correction from the record close sits near 28,100, and the July low near 27,500 is where a wave 4 reading would be tested.
Key Levels (cash NDX)
Resistance is 29,300, then 29,700–29,930 (Wednesday’s close and high), then 30,300. Support is 28,700, then 28,100–28,300, then 27,500.
Bullish Scenario
Trigger: a daily close back above 29,300. Targets: 29,700, then 29,930. Invalidation: a close below 28,700.
Bearish Scenario
Trigger: a daily close below 28,700. Targets: 28,100–28,300, then 27,500. Invalidation: a close above 29,700.
Macro: Yields, Dollar, Fed Odds and the Calendar
Yields and the Dollar
The 10-year Treasury yield fell about 18 basis points on Thursday to near 4.96%, back below 5%. The dollar index is near 101.6, close to a three-week low. In a normal tape both would lift gold. They did not, because safe-haven money went into Treasuries and oil kept hike pricing alive. Brent settled at $113.17 and WTI at $99.47 after drone attacks on Saudi targets.
Fed Pricing
Markets price a low chance of a hike at the October 28 meeting (roughly 8% to 16%, depending on the source) and about 80% to 90% odds of a hike in December. The current range is 3.75%–4.00%.
Calendar
Today: US flash PMIs at 9:45 a.m. ET and final University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations at 10:00 a.m. ET. Next week: the FOMC decision on Wednesday, October 28, Microsoft results the same evening and Amazon on October 29.
Follow-Up on Previous Calls
Gold (October 22, published near $4,090): Bearish scenario triggered, both targets hit
We said the day hinged on $4,070. It did not hold. Gold closed at $4,045, which fired our bearish trigger (close below $4,068) and invalidated the bullish scenario (close below $4,053). The first target, $4,053, was reached on Thursday, and the second, $4,000, was reached overnight with the low at $3,986.74. The bearish invalidation at $4,142 was never threatened.
Gold (October 17, published at $4,165): Invalidated
This bullish call never triggered, and gold has now broken the $4,070 invalidation level we set. It is a failed call, and we close it here.
Nasdaq 100 (October 22, published near 29,600 on futures): Bullish invalidated, bearish trigger fired
Those levels were set on NQ futures. We could not confirm the futures settlement from two sources, but the cash index closed at 28,959, below 29,000. We count the bullish scenario as invalidated and the bearish trigger as fired. The first target, 28,100–28,200, has not been reached yet.
Summary
XAUUSD near $4,015:
🟢 Bullish above $4,068, toward $4,100 and then $4,142
⚠️ Neutral between $3,987 and $4,068
🔴 Bullish case invalidated below $3,960, opening $3,941 and then $3,873
Nasdaq 100 near 28,960:
🟢 Bullish above 29,300, toward 29,700 and then 29,930
⚠️ Neutral between 28,700 and 29,300
🔴 Bullish case invalidated below 28,700, opening 28,100 and then 27,500
Both markets are sitting on support in front of the Fed and a heavy week of mega-cap earnings. Friday closes near support can be noisy, so wait for the daily close to confirm, and keep size small.
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Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves significant risk. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
